How do you know when you’re about to get hit by a tropical storm?
It might be the next few weeks before you know.
That’s because a new study shows that climate change is making the odds of that happening increasingly likely.
Researchers at the University of Adelaide and the University for Science and Technology of India have conducted an analysis of the impact of the extreme weather events that have ravaged India since April 1, 2018, and found that the risk of the weather being caused by climate change in the future is higher than previously thought.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that as climate change increases the odds are that the extreme events that occurred since the beginning of the century will be more frequent.
That’s because more than two-thirds of the heatwaves that have hit India have been caused by El Niño events.
They happen when tropical weather is warm, and this is the case for India, according to the study.
In fact, it is expected that by the end of the 21st century, about 70 per cent of the tropical storms that have been recorded in India will be caused by a combination of El Niño-type weather events and climate change, the researchers said.
The researchers found that by 2050, El Niño and global warming events are likely to be responsible for about 30 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, of the major tropical cyclone events in India.
The analysis also found that if the trend of increasing extreme weather in India continues unabated, India’s average annual average temperature will be about two degrees Celsius higher by the middle of the 2040s, according the report.
The results of the research were published in a paper titled “The risk of El Niños and global change due to global warming and climate changes.”
The researchers said they did not consider the impact that increased temperatures will have on crops and crops production.
Climate change, they wrote, “can lead to increased crop failures and decreased productivity due to reduced crop yields.”
The study also found, though, that the probability of the occurrence of the three types of extreme weather by 2050 is “significantly higher than prior to the climate change” and the probability will increase as the number of extreme events increases.
The scientists said this could be due to a number of factors, including increased crop yields due to El Niño, which they also noted in the paper, as well as changes in the atmospheric circulation, which is the movement of air from one place to another, and that will lead to more frequent and stronger storms.
They said this will increase the chance of extreme rainfall events and more extreme thunderstorms and hail events.
This article was originally published by CNN